Mumbai, 12 November
2024: Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim
Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 107.5 bn,
witnessing a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 1.85%, while non-oil exports are
forecast to amount US$ 91.7 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 7.39%, during Q3
(October-December) of FY2025. Non-oil and
non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to amount US$ 82.7 bn, with a y-o-y
growth of 7.8%, during Q3 (October-December)
of FY2025. Positive growth in India’s exports
could be as a result of India’s continued strong economic activity backed by sustained
momentum in manufacturing and services sector, improving demand prospects in
trading partners, supported by expected global monetary easing. The outlook is,
however, subject to risks of global uncertain prospects in select advanced and
emerging economies, geoeconomic fragmentation, the middle east and west Asia
crisis, risk of intensification of protectionist policies, and global supply
chain disruptions, among other factors. The positive growth rate in total
merchandise exports, non-oil exports, and non-oil & non-gems and jewellery exports,
are likely to continue in last quarter of the financial year.
Forecast of growth in India’s total
merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a
quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November,
and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index
(ELI) model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 4th
quarter of FY 2025 (i.e., January-March 2024) would be released during the
first fortnight of February 2024.
The improvisations to the model
and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee
of domain experts comprising Dr. Sunil Kumar, Adviser, Department of Economic
and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor Saikat Sinha Roy,
Professor, Department of Economics,
Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Director, Madras
School of Economics, Chennai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for
Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country
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